2012 ends, so what for 2013?

So what a year, both form a technology perspective and personally. Personally I got to complete my Churchill Fellowship and spend 9 weeks travelling around the world. I got to meet some interesting people and saw some interesting sights and project. I have come back with much in the ways of ideas but still looking for the opportunity to actually apply them.

Currently I am the vice president of the WA Churchill Fellowship Association and this year we ran the National Conference which was great. I got to meet and talk with many other Churchill fellows from around Australia. We got some great ideas and looking to a very active year next year 2013. We are holding a number of events; We have decided to separate the Returning Fellows and the presentation night of the new fellows. A cocktail party and finish the year with a Churchill Birthday Bash. We are hoping to generate interests and value to becoming a member of the association and relevance.
 
Rotary I have accepted to take on the Presidency of the Rotary Club of Heirisson in 2014/15. But first I serve as President elect for a year 2013/14. We have the Duck Race in March and I have taken on the design and graphics.

Musically Enchant Unlimited was looking to close down but a number of the members spoke to me and asked if I could keep things going. So from February 4th we start and are looking to kick off with 10+ singers. I have started to put a program together just having to come up with a name, one is "Broadway to Hollywood" but that is a work in progress. I look like I will have a great support team and looking forward to a great year.

Still in Cornerstone lodge and many will have a chuckle to themselves when they hear that I will be the Chaplin for the ensuing year. The master of the lodge said he was wanting me to take on the role as he considered it a role where someone would network among the members.

So what about the technology were do I think it will go this year.  As I indicated last year this was the year of the tablet and it can only get better. The three contenders with operating systems have now come to what I believe is a level playing field, with Windows 8 which Microsoft is considering changing its name. Windows 8 is a 180 degree change in the way you interact with a computer. It took me a very little amount of time to pick up and I really love it. Finally I have got an operating system that is starting to get to the point of working at the speed I am thinking. Its fast, intuitive and works.

Android and Jellybean is great to. For the Nexus 7 I have it too does what I need and want. Apple still continuing along its track. This year for Apple was just evolutionary and no revolutionary changes. Their life cycle has reduced and I don't think that is good. The price people pay for their technology, especially for Apple I don't think people are too happy buying expensive equipment to have it superseded only 6 months later. I am looking forward to see what Apple does this year but there is no indication of anything new on the horizon only further upgrades to existing products. The mini iPad I believe totally missed the point for its size but maybe it was an introduction in to some of the size issues with iPad's. I suspect that we will see a new iPad that is thinner and has more technology under the hood but not much more than that. It is concerning that Apple has return to selling bits and bytes. Steve Jobs would sell the dream and that is what people brought into it was the dream not the bits and bytes.

Windows 8 has had some resistance but from what I have read to date most reviews have either not even use the operating system or only judged it based on a cursory trial. I use all technology and I buy technology to do a job, if it does not do the job I get something else. Windows 8 is a complete revamp, yes a complete change but something that now is starting to work. After a little time with a tablet I liked it so much I put it on my desktop.

The next piece of technology I am really waiting to get my hands on is a device that has been developed by Leapmotion. This device will make using a computer very interesting especially with the new Windows 8 operating system. I have two on order and keenly wait for it to arrive early Jan/Feb.

The other area that will grow will be the mobile phone cross with 7 inch tablet. the 7 inch tablet I believe will develop in the area of screen resolution and the size of the screen within the 7 inch area. The point of these devices is that they fit in your pocket and are the size of a paperback. That is where the iPad mini just totally missed the point being that much bigger than your pocket means you have to carry it in a bag and if you are going to put it in a bag then why not go the full distance and get an iPad. This will become more relevant with the next iPads. I believe that the next iPads will become smaller in thickness, more powerful and higher resolution screens. The screen area will grow and the masking on the screen will reduce. As this happens then the iPad mini will become more irrelevant.

I believe that the Phone and 7 inch tablet will get closer and the next area will be the Bluetooth ear pieces will become more sophisticated so that you can use the phone function on these devices with more ease. Jawbone technology is going to become more prevalent in this area as well. Another area due for more attention is voice recognition. Less visible interaction with devices and voice driven.

The main thing I believe will come in 2013 is a 7 inch Microsoft Tablet, fingers crossed.

Disruptive Innovation Apple and the Future

Disruptive Technology

"As companies tend to innovate faster than their customers’ needs evolve, most organizations eventually end up producing products or services that are actually too sophisticated, too expensive, and too complicated for many customers in their market." - Clayton Christensen

Many of these factors can be applied to apple except maybe the complicated to use. But what has changed recently is the speed with which apple is bringing things to market. So far this year we have had the iPhone, 4s, 5 and already predictions of 5s early next year. The iPad has become the New iPad, iPad 4 and the mini iPad. Again a new mini and possible iPad predicted early next year.  Apple produce high quality for the most demanding users but how are they feeling with their investment being superseded so quickly? How many times will they return to buy a new device if it is being improved and upgraded so quickly? or will they start to take on the "Osborne Effect". Early in the PC era there was a company called Osborne Computers. They started in the market quick promisingly but soon after starting they would start to market what was coming next. People were buying their computers which were quite expensive in those days. We are talking the 1985-1995 period. So buying a computer was a big decision. Buyer were encouraged to buy more as is the norm you got some technology you can always do with more as it will make thing easier to do. But what happen was the sales people of Osborne Computers were starting to suggest to their buyers to buy the latest computer, but in the next breath inform the client that if they waited a little longer there was a bigger and better computer coming. As most of the computer being used were performing well businesses would wait. The next computer came out and business would delay. The sales teams would then hit the market, they had a growing client base so to keep them they would continue to service them. But decisions to buy were taking time and the computers were still being effective. Again the sale people would try to make the sale but again the next breath suggest waiting for the next greatest system coming out. The only problem is that business did keep waiting as the next computer was going to be bigger, faster, better but there was one problem to this model the company needed to sell its current technology more consistently to support it future technology development and sale. Buy the time they realised this the company had gone.

"Companies pursue these “sustaining innovations” at the higher tiers of their markets because this is what has historically helped them succeed: by charging the highest prices to their most demanding and sophisticated customers at the top of the market, companies will achieve the greatest profitability." - Clayton Christensen 

For quite a number of years Apple has been on a sustaining innovation track. Many of their innovations have been ground breaking and game changing to a number of different industries outside of computing. Much of this innovation lead by Steve Jobs, a founder and CEO of Apple. A lot of these innovations have been quite large jumps and Apple has been a market leader in consumer electronics with the release of the iPod, iPhone and iPad. These were massive game changers and were what I believe Blue Ocean devices. In true Blue Ocean Strategy they eliminated the competition, for quite a while there was no competition, Apple owned the space.

"The cornerstone of Blue Ocean Strategy is 'Value Innovation'. A blue ocean is created when a company achieves value innovation that creates value simultaneously for both the buyer and the company. The innovation (in product, service, or delivery) must raise and create value for the market, while simultaneously reducing or eliminating features or services that are less valued by the current or future market. The authors criticize Michael Porter's idea that successful businesses are either low-cost providers or niche-players. Instead, they propose finding value that crosses conventional market segmentation and offering value and lower cost. Educator Charles W. L. Hill proposed this idea in 1988 and claimed that Porter's model was flawed because differentiation can be a means for firms to achieve low cost. He proposed that a combination of differentiation and low cost might be necessary for firms to achieve a sustainable competitive advantage." - W. Chan Kim and Renée Mauborgne

But as indicated with Disruptive Innovation Apple has open the door to "disruptive innovators" at the bottom of the market. The likes of Samsung, HTC, Google and many others enters the bottom end of the market. These companies produced products which allowed a whole new population of consumers to access the technology that was historically only accessible to consumers with a lot of money. Apple products were not cheap and they are still in the top end of the price market. As many have experienced Apple controls their market price and no one can discount. For Apple this is good, it keep the position of the product in the market and their margins are high. The thing with disruptive innovation is that is does not address the top end of the market due to a number of factors. The product is inferior, does not have the polish or capabilities of the higher end product but one things it does have is price and an approximation to the high end product. The buyer are not so fussy and are prepared to put up with these deficiencies. But what happens next is the part that many industries have failed to take into account is the speed and veracity of development and improvement. Due to the price companies are able to turn over more product and then develop further product. At each iteration they start to improve their offerings and each offering is then purchased with much more zeal. This cycle of improvement then moves them closer to Apples customer base. For a while now Apple would then present to the market a product that was well hidden and a leap above the others and again secure their foot hold and market presence. Another factor which Apple has always claim to be their ability to do so well is that they own the entire Apple eco-system. That is both the hardware and software, which has given them quite an ability to manage and control how their products and services worked together. But again this is changing.

"Characteristics of disruptive businesses, at least in their initial stages, can include:  lower gross margins, smaller target markets, and simpler products and services that may not appear as attractive as existing solutions when compared against traditional performance metrics.  Because these lower tiers of the market offer lower gross margins, they are unattractive to other firms moving upward in the market, creating space at the bottom of the market for new disruptive competitors to emerge." - Clayton Christensen

So there is not much in the margins in the bottom end of the market for Apple. Their products are high quality and high value designed for the most demanding customers and to change that would lose that market. In the last year we have seen so many different devices coming out and competing with Apple and trying to find their market place and customers. Apple has not paid any attention to the lower end of the market as those products and services were not competing with Apple as they did not have the quality or compare to what Apple was offering. But as disruptive innovation has moved we are now seeing that the likes of Samsung is knocking at the door as are many companies. Google developed their open source platform "Android" and now Microsoft with Windows 8. Apple has resorted to the legal avenue which for Samsung has been a great marketing campaign. It is totally a perspective but to be compared to being like or similar to Apple has raised its profile. Apple had to protect its patterns and IP and they were dammed if they did and dammed if they did not challenged Samsung. But what has been the fall out. There has been so many Android Tablets released and now Windows 8 Tablets they are all similar and some different but none stuck out like the iPad. That was until Apple made us aware of the Galaxy Tab 10.1 until then it was one of many. Now as the court case was in every days news reports. That is from a tech perspective we all started to look deeper at the other offering. Why, well if Apple was worried and spending so much to stop these companies then maybe there is something that might be different or better. Better you say, but who knows let just check them out. In doing so we started to see there was alternative to the totally controlled ecosystem that Apple offered. It wasn't as good initially but we were able to customise and design to our tastes, this became infectious and others started to look the rest is history. We now have considerably more offering in the tablet space. Each offering its own type of experience and not just one view.I hear many people now saying but that's ok Apple could never fail they are just to big and they are the best. This won't stop Apple they will keep going. I would suggest that if Apple does not take heed to "Disruptive Innovation" this may not be the case. Many industries have been in the exactly same position as Apple and very sure they would continue forever, but time has proven otherwise. They did not just become dumb or the people working in them did not sabotage their futures, they were displaced by disruptive innovation. ie

• Main Frame Computer > Personal Computers
• General Motors > Toyota > Hyundai > (China and India Car Companies)
• Super Steel Mills > Mini Mills

These are just three industries but there are many more. To get a better appreciation of Disruptive Innovation check out Clayton Christensen's book the The Innovator's Dilemma: The Revolutionary Book That Will Change the Way You Do Business

Update: I have recently come across an interview with Clayton Christensen and here is what he had to say about Apple and their future prospects.

Day 28 - Microsoft and the SharePoint Team

1 Memorial Drive, Cambridge

Today I went to meet the SharePoint Product Team at the Microsoft New England Research and Development Center, 1 Memorial Drive, Cambridge across the river from the City. I arrived early not knowing the area and to make sure I was there on time, 45 min ahead of time I think I covered that aspect. The day started off with a nice bright sunshine, so while I waiting I stepped over the road to take some photos of the city over the river.

Boston the River

As the time got closer I returned to the building to get a drink and wait for Richard Sgro who is one of the product managers associated with the SharePoint Team. Upon meeting Richard he gave me a guided tour of the Microsoft sections of the building. They had a number of floor of the building and a large presentation area. Lots of work spaces and well as plenty of recreational spaces. Initially I spoke of what I was hoping to do while on my research trip and some of the things that I was interested in understanding about the next version of SharePoint. Much of the information I received was under NDA (Non Disclosure Agreement) but suffice it to say the high level of discussions about the product and the direction it is taking was very interesting and pleasing. 


I raised issues that the experience of SharePoint when it got to mobile devices needed to address different aspects of the user experience. What I saw I believe with address this issue and give us plenty of scope to delivery a fair better user experience in the future. Another area was the on boarding off applications and services delivered using SharePoint. This is a major topic for now and in the future and an area that a number of the companies I have spoken to discussed and are addressing.


I spent a bit of time in a round table discussion with the team both in Cambridge and Seattle of the issues and challenges we face in our department. More looking at the User Experience and the type of users we have. People who are not so much computer focused but just needing to do their job and that the technology needed to be as intuitive as possible. 


I major area I discussed was the management and control of information and access rights. Currently SharePoint can manage this in two ways one through AD (Active Directory) the other within SharePoint itself. Which creates a management issue and security concerns. The other is the different security levels within SharePoint and the interpretation of exactly what they all meant. There needed to be a simpler way to manage and control access to information.


The other part was development of applications and how these application could be developed and deployed. It would be great to have the functionality of a self service provision. So people would access and set up up what needed when then needed it. And finally I discussed our work in the area of MySites and the change of working across projects and utilising the MySites ability to display the individuals information that was relevant to them. 


I was given some insights into where and what SharePoint is aiming to achieve and the speed improvements for migration. I was very happy with what I saw and believe that is far more potential come our way with the latest version. We also went over a high level overview of Office and again the direction and what I saw is looking good.


I finished at Microsoft and I heading home. Before I did thought I noticed that the MIT Sloan School  of Management was next door. I went to see if they had a tour but they were engaged in a reunion so I just had to do with the photo.  :)

MIT Sloan School of Management

Day 11 - Microsoft

Boy what a day. I started at 7:30 arriving at the Executive Briefing Centre in the Microsoft Complex. I started with breakfast at 7:45 with both Josh Rice, Sr. Director, Tech Sales WWPS and Alan Merrihew, ITS Govt, WWPS. So from about 8am - 9:30 was a welcome and discussions on some of my findings to date and outlining my research topic. From there both Josh and Alan identified other sources of information which might be of interest and assistance to my project.


We discussed many thing across a wide variety of issues and products. A number of them were very interested especially the MAVIS (Microsoft Audio Visual Indexing Service) this service which is currently available. This service using some software and a SQL database using Microsoft's Azure services will take a video and capture and convert audio to text which is then indexed to positions within the video. This then give you the ability to search the content of a video for a work or parse and select that position within the video so you can review at that point. I saw the possibility within DCP to utilise that service and will be exploring that on my return. 


Another area of discussion was with big data issues and what Microsoft was doing in that space. I was surprise to find that Microsoft is working with an open source solution called Hadoop. They are committed to broadening the accessibility and usage of Hadoop to users, developers and IT professionals. Hadoop distribution for Windows offers ease of use by simplifying the acquisition, installation and configuration experience. Developers are able to install and deploy Hadoop in hours instead of days. 


With the relentless growth of data which we face at DCP which is growing at an alarming rate. At the same time the complexity of that data and with unstructured data such as Word and PDF files, images, videos and potentially geo-spatial data in future. Microsoft's experience with where they analyse over 100 petabytes of data in the delivery of their search results in Bing. They are able to help companies in this space. 


The next issue with big data is the visualisation of that data for this we spoke about ChromeZoom a product developed by Microsoft Research. Another area of discussion was the use of big data analysis of BOTs and work in the area of virus and trojan detection. This was work being doing by the Microsoft Digital Crime Unit. Another topic was the work being done with the Kinect and Autism, this is relevant to the work that my wife does in teaching autistic kids at school. There is a good video of the work they are doing with Microsoft's Kinect. The second is a video with respect to the work they are doing with physio.


After the discussions we then went ahead with the program of the day. The next session was on the work that Microsoft Research was doing and how the research program worked within the Microsoft corporate environment. This presentation was lead by Behrooz Chitsaz, Director IP Strategy, Behrooz has been with Microsoft for 20 years and his presentation was very interesting. I am looking forward to the copy of the slide deck to review what we covered. Today was a very intensive day and very exciting with so much information. The slide decks will be useful to remember some of the details. Behrooz went over some of the points initially raised by Josh and Alan. One of those is work that have been done on contact lenses that work as a heads up display and can be used as a medical device to check on sugar levels in the systems.


After this I had a break for coffee before Jeff Fong the Principal UX Design Lead and Creative Director for Windows Phone Jeff presented the story of windows journey from the start through to the work that went behind the new interface design which is incorporated in the new mobile phone interface and Windows 8. It was most enjoyable to be talking with someone who was so passionate about their work. The new metro style is not a style guide to how to build the interfaces but a set of principles which are lead by Jeff and being adopted across Microsoft. I have use the new Windows 8 Preview and enjoyed the user experience and looking forward to the release of Windows 8. Which I did not get any other indication other than what is in the press that it should be sometime before the end of the year. :)


After Jeff I then went to see the Microsoft Future Home. I then meet Jackie Giuliano who greeted me at a door in another corridor. Out side this door was a motor scooter which was being charged. It was electric but looked exactly like it petrol counter part. After giving me an outline of what I was about to see he then lead me into the next room. This room look to be the front of a house. Bit by bit Jackie lead me through the house explaining and showing me examples of some of the things we could expect with a house in the next 5-10 years. You can see a little of what I saw with the video on youtube.


After this I had lunch with Alan and then Arjmand Samuel, SR Research PM presented their work in the tool set used to develop phone applications on the phone. This is currently available for download and there is considerable amount of information at the Touch Develop Website. Some of the things discussed and shown were under NDA so I am unable to discuss what I saw. Other than what I saw looks exciting for the future of true mobile development. When Windows 8 is released then I will be able to discuss in more details.


After another break I then went to the Envisioning Labs where I meet Karla Clark who took me through the labs to see some of the possibilities for the future. The video here shows some of the prototypes that I saw in these labs of what Microsoft believes we will be using in the not to distant future. 


After the presentation in the Envisioning labs I then return to the room where I started to have a presentation by Ken Malit, Systems Solutions Specialist with the Microsoft Surface Version 2 technology. Ken when through a presentation about the work that Microsoft has been involved with since 1997. This was a major improvement over version 1. To get a better sense of what I am talking about check out this demo video. The following video is made up with the demonstration of the possibilities of surface technology, alternative realities being used in the not to distant future.


After my session with Ken I then headed off from the Executive Briefing Centre to have a presentation by  David Vey to see a demonstration of the Microsoft Global Security Operations Center (GSOC). David meet me at the door and then took me into the center to present information about the GSOC's around the world and how he with the use of all out of the box software is able to manager and communicate with all people and locations to both manage the security of their property and people but also their continuity of business. During the demonstration he made calls to check on communication in locations in London and India. Within seconds he had both verbal responses and video conferencing over the net work and via Lynx. Behind him was a which wall which looked to be a white board work area. He then proceeded to the entrance of the room flicked a switch and the glass area became transparent showing the GSOC there in Redmond. 


All up today was very informative and quite exciting to be at the Head Office of Microsoft. Tomorrow I am hoping to visit the Usability Labs and then a little more sight seeing before heading off to Austin, Texas on Wednesday morning.


Signing off - 11:49pm 21st May